UFC · resolved market
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b02d5c342e4b63de55bdd5d0fd91f1c5ee64ea9e507bd442f798d86ec393000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sumudaerji of Sumudaerji , Jesus Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $652,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $652,109 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Sumudaerji | 61c | 150,000$91,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,499.98 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 109,725$42,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,931.15 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 63,931$22,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,262.5 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 30,199$11,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,781.31 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…19babacked Jesus Aguilar | 38c | 26,500$10,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,069.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sumudaerji | 63c | 25,111$15,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,316.28 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 20,790$8,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,161.84 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Jesus Aguilar | 10c | 20,524$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.59 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Sumudaerji | 60c | 20,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,999.99 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 17,081$6,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,739.88 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Sumudaerji | 65c | 16,211$10,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,645.18 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Sumudaerji | 65c | 15,654$10,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,494.09 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Sumudaerji | 62c | 15,284$9,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,765.22 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sumudaerji | 62c | 15,000$9,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,700 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 12,627$4,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,987.23 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Sumudaerji | 60c | 11,439$6,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,588.58 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 10,000$6,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,425 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 10,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jesus Aguilar | 36c | 9,470$3,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,409.07 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Jesus Aguilar | 41c | 9,164$3,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,774.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Sumudaerji | 60c | 8,333$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.33 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 8,064$5,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,741.63 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Sumudaerji | 65c | 8,000$5,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.97 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 6,327$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.2 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Jesus Aguilar | 36c | 6,320$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.2 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 6,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 5,135$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686f…ccb1backed Sumudaerji | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 5,000$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.95 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Jesus Aguilar | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.99 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Sumudaerji | 61c | 3,830$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.51 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 3,808$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.58 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Sumudaerji | 64c | 2,695$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.69 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…88acbacked Sumudaerji | 62c | 2,171$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sumudaerji | 59c | 2,139$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.33 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Jesus Aguilar | 36c | 2,050$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Sumudaerji | 63c | 2,000$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…c4b9backed Sumudaerji | 62c | 1,745$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Sumudaerji | 65c | 1,527$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Jesus Aguilar | 36c | 1,470$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Sumudaerji | 72c | 1,461$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.89 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 1,423$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…b756backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 1,360$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Sumudaerji | 64c | 1,248$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.2 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…021dbacked Jesus Aguilar | 41c | 1,246$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 1,114$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.97 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Jesus Aguilar | 34c | 1,002$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.13 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Sumudaerji | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f1…e373backed Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Sumudaerji | 61c | 983.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.61 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 973.67$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 957$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 939.58$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.83 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Jesus Aguilar | 34c | 928.12$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.88 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sumudaerji | 72c | 782.31$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.85 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 782.15$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 714.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.24 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Sumudaerji | 75c | 705.53$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.53 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Sumudaerji | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Sumudaerji | 62c | 687.1$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.1 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Sumudaerji | 64c | 673.27$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.16 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Sumudaerji | 65c | 662.99$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.05 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Sumudaerji | 64c | 630.75$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.64 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Jesus Aguilar | 37c | 626.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 571$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Jesus Aguilar | 34c | 549.95$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 517.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sumudaerji | 66c | 515$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.19 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sumudaerji | 60c | 500$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…4cd5backed Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Sumudaerji | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Jesus Aguilar | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2d…6443backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 498.25$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 495$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Sumudaerji | 61c | 490.82$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.42 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Jesus Aguilar | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Jesus Aguilar | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Sumudaerji | 65c | 475.36$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Sumudaerji | 64c | 470.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 458.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eca3backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 457.5$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Sumudaerji | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Sumudaerji | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Jesus Aguilar | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…c45dbacked Jesus Aguilar | 40c | 410$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Sumudaerji | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Sumudaerji | 66c | 380$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Jesus Aguilar | 39c | 358$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Jesus Aguilar | 31c | 340.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Sumudaerji | 62c | 340$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Sumudaerji | 60c | 327.48$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.62 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 319.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…2a0fbacked Sumudaerji | 66c | 317.86$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…7d6dbacked Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Jesus Aguilar | 41c | 281.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Jesus Aguilar | 35c | 281.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.