UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512025d7a8a687ef8518607bcb2646f2ecd83e63377d5bb2f50b0e33d297e8e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,983 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 48c | 630$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 591.13$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.63 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Under | 51c | 546.62$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.44 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Under | 41c | 428.37$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.63 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…1c61backed Over | 58c | 171.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked Under | 61c | 155.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Over | 47c | 106.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Over | 49c | 100.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cad…341dbacked Over | 50c | 99.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Over | 45c | 82.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 46c | 82.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 39c | 79.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Under | 54c | 76.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…7d6dbacked Under | 56c | 69.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 50c | 55.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…648abacked Over | 54c | 36.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 52c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Over | 59c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Under | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8878…2ff1backed Under | 63c | 17.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)Charles Oliveira won
- Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.