Middle East · resolved market
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbccc347167426e6e7a3aaa72a76a6dbd6b9e0d636ae08187616c3b601591718e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,192 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 0c | 17,162$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,890$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 10,450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,420$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 2c | 4,400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe247…29f6backed Yes | 14c | 4,009$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…1996backed Yes | 1c | 3,075$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,741$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f9…a986backed Yes | 40c | 2,382$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 1,816$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.53 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 1,758$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.17 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 1c | 1,566$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes | 5c | 1,395$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +120%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 22c | 1,274$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…3e7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,081$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 20c | 1,022$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 4c | 990.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 60c | 931.14$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.49 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 12c | 833.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…c941backed Yes | 22c | 802.54$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 674$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 616.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 63c | 595.29$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.48 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 8c | 556.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 8c | 554.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 36c | 553.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 551.44$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.14 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 550.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 68c | 516$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.12 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 68c | 508$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 32c | 442$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 32c | 414$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 32c | 397$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 29c | 383$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 71c | 383$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 29c | 378$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 71c | 378$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 32c | 372.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 367.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 366.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 355.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 79c | 344.33$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 15c | 313$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 11c | 302.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 294.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes | 34c | 290.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 78c | 272.28$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 70c | 265$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 30c | 265$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 61c | 254.46$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 30c | 247$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 70c | 247$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 245.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 20c | 239.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 68c | 229$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 12c | 217.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81bf…0d34backed Yes | 24c | 210.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0872…95e6backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af5…82debacked No | 76c | 197.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 73c | 191.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 68c | 189.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 41c | 185.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 8c | 185$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 177.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 57c | 171.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 28c | 165.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…684cbacked Yes | 50c | 165$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…882dbacked Yes | 31c | 162.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…866ebacked No | 77c | 159.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 23c | 149.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 78c | 127.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed Yes | 20c | 127.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…bca8backed No | 76c | 126.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 24c | 125.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 124.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 26c | 119.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 43c | 116.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed No | 77c | 116.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 29c | 108.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fe…b4a2backed No | 80c | 106.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -5.0wins | -0.38per pick | 69cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1f…8fbebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 70c | 99.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 94.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 11c | 92.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 62c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 86.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?this page
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.