Middle East · resolved market
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9845dc3824226a148cd51a7cea233a17f97910fccd575c6c01addf594f22299c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,243 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 1c | 2,121$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 1,185$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 21c | 364.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 361.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 355.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 4c | 340.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 301.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 282$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 69c | 275.7$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 252$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 225$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 70c | 165.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 11c | 155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 13c | 135.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 42c | 131.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 120.71$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…1989backed No | 65c | 77.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…0b48backed Yes | 44c | 68.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 21c | 65.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 62c | 53.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 77c | 50.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…d3a0backed Yes | 30c | 49.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 70c | 48.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 77c | 39.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643b…cd1cbacked No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…c335backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?this page
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.