Middle East · resolved market
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb44c1c2dcd3b02ef53ddd5dce52ee811c818043dfa16db2867797acd5148a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,407 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,421$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,361$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 16c | 1,240$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.96 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 1,192$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.39 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 8c | 1,131$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410e…53a1backed Yes | 3c | 641.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 622.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…8984backed Yes | 17c | 593.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 492.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 466.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 452$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…48b6backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…1c65backed No | 74c | 320$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…4f54backed Yes | 16c | 253.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 245.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 18c | 240$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 221$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…684cbacked Yes | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…e256backed Yes | 32c | 156.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…ab20backed No | 71c | 141.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…c113backed Yes | 43c | 139.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 126.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…452ebacked Yes | 17c | 116.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 113.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 87.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…882dbacked Yes | 34c | 74.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…7f06backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 72.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 77c | 51.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…f6d5backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…4877backed No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 54c | 30.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…afa0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?this page
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.