Middle East · resolved market
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5952e2f44f1251863da558fb625484230648a9709807eeb39fb08670a87e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,880 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 42c | 4,800$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…0b78backed Yes | 12c | 3,510$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 2,980$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.89 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…9f4dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,934$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 65c | 2,496$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.89 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,453$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 21c | 2,052$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.52 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 65c | 1,985$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.41 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 15c | 1,965$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.08 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 79c | 1,946$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.74 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cc…78a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,914$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,835$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 20c | 1,749$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.65 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 1,723$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.24 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 3c | 1,458$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fe…b4a2backed Yes | 59c | 1,429$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -5.0wins | -0.38per pick | 69cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 73c | 1,391$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.69 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 25c | 1,190$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 79c | 1,092$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.22 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 1,054$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.74 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…48b6backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f57…9143backed Yes | 5c | 931.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 26c | 799.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 789.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…f483backed Yes | 37c | 784.64$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 783.44$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.17 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 48c | 769.99$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…078dbacked Yes | 10c | 734.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 78c | 713.1$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 64c | 699.98$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 677.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 672.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 50c | 669.72$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.58 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…5092backed Yes | 42c | 647.16$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b2…0d0abacked No | 47c | 635.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…8c37backed Yes | 35c | 586.14$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…6202backed Yes | 5c | 552.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 52c | 550$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 18c | 545.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 59c | 531.52$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.12 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 54c | 527.43$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.06 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 52c | 509$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 492.44$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 61c | 452.29$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.27 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…f21fbacked Yes | 58c | 430.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…c941backed Yes | 41c | 407.09$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 44c | 405.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…8b0abacked Yes | 40c | 389.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 383.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…daffbacked No | 47c | 382.52$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…684cbacked Yes | 70c | 360.8$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 12c | 339.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 52c | 336$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 48c | 336$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 62c | 323.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.02 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 27c | 313.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…3ac2backed Yes | 16c | 311.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 48c | 304$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed Yes | 60c | 300.46$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…d7c5backed No | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d72…b643backed No | 68c | 295.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…7f10backed No | 31c | 292.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 42c | 288.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked No | 66c | 288.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 51c | 275.9$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 271.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked No | 48c | 268$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 41c | 260$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 259.24$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…a4bcbacked Yes | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 48c | 246$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 242.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 36c | 241.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 48c | 241$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…69c5backed Yes | 43c | 233.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…d5dabacked No | 44c | 227.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 226.25$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4a…bd70backed Yes | 32c | 219.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 35c | 214$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes | 65c | 210.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…964ebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 60c | 198.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…bca8backed No | 75c | 196.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 193.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…3e06backed Yes | 14c | 187.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 54c | 186.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…c744backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…745dbacked Yes | 55c | 180.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 49c | 172$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…c20fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 60c | 165.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?this page
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.