Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ad4dbbc17e72966dc6cf2cbd76e86d7801607e2cd0107d23b8f7002ab12351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 75c | 8,369$6,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.45 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…008dbacked Yes | 17c | 7,955$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 7,176$5,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.34 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 48c | 4,312$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.03 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 17c | 3,286$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.97 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 6c | 2,485$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…becfbacked No | 70c | 1,780$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…bfa2backed Yes | 18c | 1,700$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 33c | 1,634$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.4 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 1,633$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.21 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 27c | 1,615$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.96 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,579$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.67 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…6f85backed Yes | 41c | 1,528$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,510$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.48 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00d…a887backed Yes | 32c | 1,496$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 25c | 1,486$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.39 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 55c | 1,464$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.75 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…2e9fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,423$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…6d99backed No | 53c | 1,422$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 1,368$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.48 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 77c | 1,290$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.38 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 15c | 1,236$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…ada4backed Yes | 29c | 1,134$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.26 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,071$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 36c | 1,068$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 1,066$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.62 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,056$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 20c | 998.15$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca54…f9e6backed Yes | 9c | 983.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 16c | 907$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…0c69backed Yes | 23c | 851.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 18c | 849.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +202.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 14c | 842$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 841.97$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.39 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…3045backed Yes | 46c | 836.45$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 12c | 833$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed Yes | 45c | 831.11$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.11 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Yes | 26c | 796.85$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 44c | 782.06$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.35 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 30c | 740.36$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes | 14c | 725.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9a4abacked Yes | 14c | 638.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 13c | 609$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…a68dbacked Yes | 59c | 585.37$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.77 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 527.56$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 15c | 495$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.75 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 13c | 494$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…4fe3backed Yes | 34c | 462.03$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e737backed Yes | 25c | 451.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…969abacked Yes | 22c | 449.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 24c | 419.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked Yes | 24c | 415.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24be…183ebacked Yes | 24c | 410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 13c | 407$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd2…dd42backed Yes | 20c | 403.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 22c | 400$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 372.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5bacbacked Yes | 30c | 371.21$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x275e…7ebbbacked Yes | 16c | 366.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7d25backed Yes | 21c | 364.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 17c | 363.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b74…4127backed Yes | 28c | 362.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 65c | 356.86$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 336.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…cd40backed Yes | 50c | 334.52$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…b913backed No | 63c | 333.33$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 36c | 332.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa38…c535backed No | 62c | 320.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.06 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 37c | 315.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 314.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 69c | 313.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…5323backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 35c | 311.74$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 21c | 309.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 47c | 306.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd47…7779backed Yes | 48c | 290.39$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 39c | 289.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.66 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 289.06$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 19c | 286.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 70c | 283.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…4cc3backed Yes | 36c | 280.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 28c | 276.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…2622backed Yes | 11c | 275.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 11c | 272.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…2ad2backed Yes | 31c | 271.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 270.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…ca15backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 15c | 268$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 11c | 264$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 16c | 263.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…861cbacked Yes | 16c | 263.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 4c | 261.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.