World Politics · resolved market
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xace576270a7897abbca0db947a0c17d6088d398630afebc9d871e1916777194f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,072 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 5c | 10,885$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.09 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 10,537$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 1c | 8,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 4,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 3c | 3,333$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 2c | 3,100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 5c | 3,092$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaf…6decbacked No | 10c | 2,990$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc600…e634backed No | 5c | 2,860$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…dd59backed No | 8c | 2,620$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 5c | 2,244$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 2,122$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked No | 10c | 2,042$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed No | 1c | 1,959$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 1,873$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…5b1bbacked No | 2c | 1,752$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 5c | 1,724$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 1,681$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 5c | 1,650$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 3c | 1,631$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…edfcbacked No | 3c | 1,433$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 6c | 1,352$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 5c | 965.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6fddbacked No | 10c | 935.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…b913backed No | 6c | 891.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 5c | 882.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 866.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 5c | 860.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 5c | 847.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 4c | 835.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 6c | 826.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…9d5cbacked No | 5c | 811.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 8c | 807.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 5c | 777.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 7c | 726.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed No | 4c | 723.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…7a49backed No | 9c | 612.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 4c | 567.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 561.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 532$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…5b3ebacked No | 5c | 509.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 5c | 499.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 495.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed No | 9c | 468.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 462.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6971backed No | 6c | 462.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c0…7657backed No | 7c | 400.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…0921backed No | 5c | 400.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…c113backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked No | 5c | 388.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 6c | 377.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…d299backed No | 5c | 372.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…0477backed No | 5c | 365.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 5c | 360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 7c | 350.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…abadbacked No | 10c | 348.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 5c | 346.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 6c | 330.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2332…c44ebacked No | 11c | 328.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 310.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 5c | 301.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bb…6a95backed No | 7c | 299.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 5c | 297.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc06…a363backed No | 5c | 294.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…da97backed No | 5c | 288.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 7c | 286.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked No | 5c | 281.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 276.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 243.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 8c | 219.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 7c | 201.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 6c | 201.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…ed0fbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…5abfbacked No | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 6c | 183.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 9c | 178.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 6c | 177.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…d594backed No | 6c | 157.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 154.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…e059backed No | 8c | 127.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…9e77backed No | 10c | 111.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?this page
- Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?No won
- Will Vox (VOX) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.