World Politics · resolved market
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6e30b5a47f672abeda4ddfd38286b2ae6cce71e32aa442b203ae789dbd650cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,153 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 3c | 8,526$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,859$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 2c | 6,318$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 3c | 5,444$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…ea13backed Yes | 1c | 4,144$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd820…3d50backed Yes | 8c | 3,711$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,254$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…2ccbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,220$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,926$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 5c | 2,797$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…eff0backed Yes | 4c | 2,245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,097$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,707$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,596$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6fddbacked Yes | 7c | 1,534$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…edfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,462$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…5b1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,444$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 1,378$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…6e41backed Yes | 2c | 1,330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…1a62backed Yes | 3c | 1,328$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 1,313$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…b04abacked Yes | 3c | 1,306$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…31e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,060$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…5b3ebacked Yes | 4c | 893.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…73f6backed Yes | 3c | 826.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 813$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…e818backed Yes | 5c | 739.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…bb6ebacked Yes | 3c | 720.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc600…e634backed Yes | 5c | 670.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 3c | 665.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 4c | 650.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 6c | 643.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…2e3abacked Yes | 3c | 554.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 2c | 537.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 506.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 477.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 8c | 444.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 5c | 440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…15cebacked Yes | 3c | 438.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…6e99backed Yes | 3c | 425$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…a794backed Yes | 3c | 387.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 6c | 358.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 316.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…da97backed Yes | 5c | 312.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 232.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…5263backed Yes | 5c | 209.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe90…f1f0backed Yes | 6c | 204.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83b…6c54backed Yes | 8c | 190.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 142.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?this page
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?Yes won
- Will Vox (VOX) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.