Middle East · resolved market
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f4b14287464c4f7d70248fe7ab7f40d16e3216f38e948def8f4ee449aab146f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 13c | 4,926$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.92 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,296$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,238$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 15c | 1,131$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 14c | 984.29$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…0cd3backed Yes | 57c | 882.26$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked Yes | 12c | 825$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 19c | 774.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 11c | 767$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 13c | 728$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 11c | 708$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 16c | 685$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 12c | 637$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 596.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 12c | 591$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 12c | 584.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 11c | 573$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed Yes | 16c | 558$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 38c | 526.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…0593backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 16c | 472$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 9c | 468.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…cdf3backed Yes | 36c | 448.62$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 11c | 442$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 429.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 10c | 429$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 427.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed Yes | 9c | 389.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 16c | 364$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes | 11c | 343$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cd…f8d7backed Yes | 74c | 338.03$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed Yes | 16c | 334$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 11c | 329$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 328.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 15c | 323.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 11c | 319.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 12c | 306$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 9c | 287.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes | 52c | 264.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 12c | 251$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 41c | 237.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 234.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 12c | 226$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 210.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 39c | 210.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 54c | 184.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 7c | 169.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4d…3e59backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 20c | 146.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…7d75backed Yes | 10c | 129.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 11c | 125.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 16c | 119$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…f794backed Yes | 17c | 118.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…f886backed No | 80c | 113.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 16c | 103.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…7e20backed Yes | 72c | 100.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad02…8d80backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 36c | 95.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 20c | 94.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc737…d34cbacked Yes | 24c | 88.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…da70backed Yes | 30c | 84.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…385bbacked Yes | 48c | 72.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…fcd4backed Yes | 69c | 72.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abd…44f4backed Yes | 43c | 70.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c6…fbb0backed Yes | 17c | 68.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…8e18backed Yes | 35c | 57.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…9c14backed Yes | 35c | 57.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 50.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…cd42backed Yes | 48c | 41.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…9f0bbacked Yes | 35c | 40.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 34cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea0…cd32backed Yes | 41c | 29.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…de6ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…7315backed Yes | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…707ebacked Yes | 54c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.