TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,293 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes2c5,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes4c5,000$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21626429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes13c4,926$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.9215230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes5c1,296$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3422227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes7c1,238$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.717817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes15c1,131$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.652650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes14c984.29$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.921034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc432…0cd3backed Yes57c882.26$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04f…15babacked Yes12c825$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.17922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-60.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes19c774.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes11c767$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.372737%10 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes13c728$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.641942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes11c708$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.881435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes10c699.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7012139.7%48 W · 73 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes16c685$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed Yes12c637$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.441145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c596.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.611,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed Yes12c591$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes12c584.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes11c573$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.03742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b1…4336backed Yes16c558$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b4…85b5backed Yes38c526.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5660…0593backed Yes20c499.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9941…7fd9backed Yes16c472$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+85.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd512…79b3backed Yes9c468.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444621.7%10 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc701…cdf3backed Yes36c448.62$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.271421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed Yes11c442$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.622352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes9c429.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.835652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes10c429$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.919445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd496…33d7backed Yes23c427.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3960…0975backed Yes9c389.27$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.944112.2%5 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked Yes16c364$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.242642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes11c343$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93cd…f8d7backed Yes74c338.03$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-82%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed Yes16c334$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.441145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed Yes11c329$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.191729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes6c328.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8348630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes15c323.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.523525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes11c319.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.131833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes12c306$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.721118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-72.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes9c287.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7212654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes52c264.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.382065%13 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes12c251$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.122445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+122.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No41c237.73$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes16c234.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes12c226$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.122055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c210.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.774136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No39c210.08$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.154928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No59c199.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.527047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes54c184.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002512%3 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd524…2accbacked No78c170$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.43473.5%25 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes7c169.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1321926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc4d…3e59backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153522.9%8 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No20c146.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.194769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fed…7d75backed Yes10c129.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes11c125.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.099942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes16c119$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf762…f794backed Yes17c118.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x452d…f886backed No80c113.1$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes16c103.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179125.3%23 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c6…7e20backed Yes72c100.77$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.283933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2118833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…af68backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187428.4%21 W · 53 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad02…8d80backed Yes24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes36c95.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes20c94.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.843625%9 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc737…d34cbacked Yes24c88.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc622…da70backed Yes30c84.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9945…385bbacked Yes48c72.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…fcd4backed Yes69c72.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503221.9%7 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abd…44f4backed Yes43c70.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c6…fbb0backed Yes17c68.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.571450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+49%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a6…8e18backed Yes35c57.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204717%8 W · 39 L-7.2wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb1c2…9c14backed Yes35c57.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+60.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c50.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0839621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf620…cd42backed Yes48c41.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0aa0…be2dbacked Yes28c40.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.441050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9942…9f0bbacked Yes35c40.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick34cpaid+235.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.215751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No64c30.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.848482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ea0…cd32backed Yes41c29.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid+20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…de6ebacked Yes69c28.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ded…7315backed Yes65c27.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.531136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f81…707ebacked Yes54c23.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133823.7%9 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.