Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99eae4df6be8a35ebd42fbe7fd831889481efb8ea753755a6d4c08abac93bfbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4815…8ba4backed Yes | 22c | 2,564$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,524$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…ed6fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,094$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 76c | 1,208$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 75c | 1,153$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.35 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes | 22c | 870.36$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Yes | 18c | 833.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…62dcbacked Yes | 22c | 433.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 3c | 420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Yes | 23c | 418.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 253.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 221.04$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 21c | 140.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 138.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 22c | 95.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 90.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed No | 79c | 68.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…0d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 66.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 78c | 61.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 78c | 56.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 78c | 39.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 24.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 78c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed No | 79c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 76c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…9df5backed No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.