Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x942d48895254171f9fbfd09df8b04e503c836fdaadf30f482429b1a44928e7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Yes | 79c | 521.96$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 61c | 339.73$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 31c | 330.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…c7b3backed No | 70c | 231.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…8334backed Yes | 40c | 145.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed No | 11c | 143.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 73c | 139.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 50c | 120.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 49c | 110.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…22bdbacked Yes | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 62c | 79.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 59c | 73.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…5099backed Yes | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 32c | 51.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…e384backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 38c | 49.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 62c | 48.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f71…9a06backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 40c | 38.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…3a0dbacked Yes | 40c | 38.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 63c | 37.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…f654backed Yes | 42c | 32.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Yes | 37c | 32.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…496abacked No | 65c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…cdc5backed Yes | 41c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 53c | 21.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcebd…2502backed Yes | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4091…10e2backed No | 66c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.