Chess · resolved market
Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5c616b96f2a996756e66391ac88311068a85f40ae45d0675095d85693313324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 76c | 1,090$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.6 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 461.48$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…ecc2backed Yes | 23c | 414.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 77c | 324$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2609…e07abacked Yes | 24c | 298.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…b6f3backed Yes | 24c | 238.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 23c | 238.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 24c | 198.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…4a00backed Yes | 24c | 178.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893f…6a2dbacked Yes | 24c | 119.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…0d4ebacked Yes | 23c | 85.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…fad9backed Yes | 25c | 75.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…68ecbacked Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc992…7994backed Yes | 20c | 50.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 45.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 78c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Anish Giri vs. Yi Wei end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.