Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa05e2a5e3a5af2c93a8eb67823752496ff04d26bf235bb1cbd1693ce0055fdf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Yes | 56c | 1,323$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked No | 67c | 1,150$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…c7a9backed Yes | 18c | 528.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 74c | 509.87$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 22c | 488.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 37c | 422.08$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 13c | 326.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 16c | 297.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 205.76$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 164.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 80c | 133.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 15c | 127.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 41c | 126.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 78c | 111.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 75c | 108.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…df78backed Yes | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 26c | 92.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 74c | 71.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 21c | 67.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 67.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 28c | 55.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 27c | 48.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4091…10e2backed No | 76c | 42.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 42c | 37.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 42c | 28.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Yi Wei vs. Hikaru Nakamura end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.