Chess · resolved market
Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f73c0b2da2f607f4725661e54f38017697bc277a5430871209344f6392df383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 78c | 752.88$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…29f0backed Yes | 24c | 640.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 4c | 598.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 28c | 442.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 318.05$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 35c | 284.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…bf13backed Yes | 17c | 244.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…2eb6backed No | 60c | 219.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…c94bbacked Yes | 7c | 214.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 126.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e8c1backed Yes | 50c | 122.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 105.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 19c | 102.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…fad9backed Yes | 53c | 94.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 87.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 50c | 74.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…a48dbacked Yes | 32c | 73.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked No | 56c | 60.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 62c | 55.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…f267backed Yes | 56c | 36.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed Yes | 39c | 29.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd70…de14backed No | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 42c | 27.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?this page
- Will Aleksandra Goryachkina win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Tan Zhongyi win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Vaishali R win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?Yes won
- Will someone else win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.