Chess · resolved market
Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe509c582550d1fa75b1f8a4a471bddbdb6e28073b82c1392e7283b1b155f7810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 7c | 1,789$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 78c | 1,090$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.67 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 34c | 652.52$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…db9ebacked Yes | 63c | 481.78$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e8c1backed Yes | 24c | 389.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…5874backed Yes | 7c | 367.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…5732backed Yes | 45c | 214.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 50c | 172.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…6ae6backed Yes | 23c | 163.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 16c | 141.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Yes | 17c | 112.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb1…5399backed Yes | 59c | 97.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes | 54c | 94.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…fad9backed Yes | 27c | 60.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…c94bbacked Yes | 35c | 54.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 50.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c33…a66bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…1620backed Yes | 60c | 48.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa443…4736backed Yes | 32c | 39.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 60c | 32.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?this page
- Will Aleksandra Goryachkina win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Tan Zhongyi win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Vaishali R win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?Yes won
- Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will someone else win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.