Chess · resolved market
Will someone else win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee7337bfd0f02a8107243283ca623db579d9f3debac0c5f42413c427bfeebfe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7741…29f0backed Yes | 41c | 1,021$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 5c | 911.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 14c | 684.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e8c1backed Yes | 15c | 677.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 59c | 608.88$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.7 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed Yes | 26c | 280.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…5874backed Yes | 28c | 247.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 243.95$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2270…ca8cbacked Yes | 56c | 163.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 11c | 121.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 15c | 113.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156a…98eebacked Yes | 43c | 78.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 16c | 75.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 43c | 53.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…1732backed Yes | 46c | 41.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…ac7fbacked Yes | 51c | 31.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will someone else win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?this page
- Will Aleksandra Goryachkina win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Tan Zhongyi win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Vaishali R win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?Yes won
- Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.