Chess · resolved market
Will Vaishali R win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1990ce4372b56cf2221b76d6609a52b9e73cb6bee9f21b1a1f663fba80f1c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 77c | 2,347$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.66 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed No | 53c | 973.72$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.01 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 23c | 822.77$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 567.44$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.86 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 566.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e8c1backed Yes | 67c | 518.74$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…5874backed Yes | 55c | 425.21$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.89 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 39c | 326.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.17 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 295.61$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…29f0backed Yes | 11c | 277.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 23c | 260.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.18 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 57c | 231.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…d64dbacked Yes | 55c | 175.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…777ebacked Yes | 39c | 152.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 26c | 129.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 126.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c6…1110backed Yes | 29c | 122.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…fad9backed Yes | 35c | 110.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 26c | 97.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 34c | 82.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 48c | 78.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…645bbacked Yes | 58c | 74.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…22e9backed Yes | 28c | 64.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…2fc7backed Yes | 58c | 61.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed Yes | 36c | 53.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 50.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed No | 68c | 43.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 34.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…7abcbacked Yes | 38c | 32.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…bc0ebacked Yes | 42c | 31.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +203.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 43c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b9d5backed No | 57c | 22.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vaishali R win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?this page
- Will Aleksandra Goryachkina win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Tan Zhongyi win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
- Will someone else win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.