Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72a5e7ee5df29a9255bfb92be43ebe1db97aae41a36d78c8bf40a3bf62299af2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,315 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 1c | 18,494$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…3a0abacked No | 80c | 8,480$6,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.16 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 64c | 3,790$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.24 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 39c | 2,995$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.16 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 18c | 2,619$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.95 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,997$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.08 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 59c | 1,726$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.17 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 4c | 996.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 30c | 649.16$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 533.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 3c | 532.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 5c | 358.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 299.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…66b2backed No | 54c | 290.74$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 72c | 231.36$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 222.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcf…8ebabacked Yes | 44c | 220.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 63c | 194.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 42c | 194.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 53c | 172.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 72c | 62.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 64c | 41.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…5cbebacked No | 62c | 36.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…214bbacked No | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 16-22?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 March 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.