Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3227f442eeb8626e866def90550306a2ab2749e2ddeb25b80b587593daa4142c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,231 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1465…7072backed No | 77c | 38,683$29,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,020.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…09abbacked Yes | 12c | 29,800$3,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,572.34 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 21c | 13,527$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.55 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 10c | 7,279$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.74 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 20c | 6,577$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.36 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 21c | 5,142$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.23 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 23c | 3,511$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.17 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 15c | 1,459$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.58 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked Yes | 10c | 1,413$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Yes | 1c | 1,076$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 13c | 1,028$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 8c | 989.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 23c | 903.55$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…8692backed No | 39c | 750$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…3a0abacked Yes | 27c | 743.06$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.09 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 9c | 684.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed No | 58c | 617.72$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 23c | 611.38$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 551.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0d…1fa6backed Yes | 28c | 524.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.95 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…2184backed Yes | 19c | 520.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 9c | 505.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 37c | 499.14$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 7c | 493.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…1ad9backed Yes | 14c | 458.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 5c | 443.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 405$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 37c | 391.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9025…d2ccbacked Yes | 13c | 389.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 80c | 378.09$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…1fedbacked Yes | 13c | 305.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…85a0backed No | 39c | 292.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 25c | 228.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cf…4e4cbacked Yes | 23c | 218.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 9c | 212.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…a639backed Yes | 24c | 198.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 65c | 194.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7971…8dd0backed No | 58c | 167.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 30c | 162.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8b…aa2fbacked Yes | 18c | 159$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…026dbacked Yes | 21c | 158.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 11c | 149.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 40c | 141.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 17c | 139.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c3f7backed Yes | 24c | 137.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 15c | 131.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025f…25cfbacked Yes | 20c | 101.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bc…1523backed Yes | 18c | 98.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…b560backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…14b6backed Yes | 24c | 81.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c52…2d1abacked Yes | 24c | 81.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 78c | 80.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked No | 79c | 79.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed No | 79c | 78.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 72c | 68.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…13e8backed Yes | 26c | 57.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed No | 69c | 53.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…2556backed Yes | 35c | 34.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 42c | 25.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…ddbdbacked No | 44c | 25.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4fc1backed No | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed No | 51c | 21.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…2a68backed No | 71c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed No | 77c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked No | 76c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 16-22?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 March 16-22?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 March 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.