F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ebe7c2c658516231bd4e1ff72b8b164c29b8d6eda717dbe035dd802356b05d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 36c | 3,800$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 37c | 2,445$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.49 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 61c | 1,980$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.96 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 33c | 1,895$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.49 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…cee6backed Yes | 39c | 1,792$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 34c | 1,755$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.36 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,216$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.12 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c816backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 38c | 735.76$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 35c | 708.43$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.76 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 41c | 549.46$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…41a9backed Yes | 16c | 513.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…66b2backed Yes | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed Yes | 36c | 484.94$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 51c | 388.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.43 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 34c | 318.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…499ebacked Yes | 36c | 280.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4d…92b8backed Yes | 36c | 278.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 36c | 278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…9decbacked Yes | 37c | 273.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes | 48c | 259.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 53c | 244.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 221.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 47c | 204.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 50c | 191.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 65c | 190.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes | 42c | 187.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 61c | 185.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 57c | 154.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 57c | 145.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed No | 66c | 143.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 49c | 131.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 37c | 120.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…096ebacked Yes | 43c | 119.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…d641backed Yes | 37c | 107.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…cda9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…82a3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…14c2backed Yes | 41c | 98.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…74efbacked Yes | 39c | 95.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc2…d32ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…73febacked Yes | 46c | 89.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…efa5backed No | 53c | 86.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Yes | 46c | 86.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…8d9abacked Yes | 48c | 85.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 56c | 84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 32c | 81.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 63c | 77.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…ea87backed No | 64c | 68.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1611…1754backed Yes | 55c | 66.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd684…1a34backed Yes | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Yes | 39c | 65.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2980…0302backed No | 51c | 62.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…c428backed Yes | 39c | 55.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…81c3backed Yes | 49c | 51.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…b751backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 40.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 66c | 38.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…ad03backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?Yes won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.