F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd532ad1775e90c361040f070d083ed6316d6389ac2e313b0de0cd411da52aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 50c | 7,854$3,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,936.35 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…3969backed Yes | 1c | 4,925$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…a7aabacked No | 51c | 3,289$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 30c | 2,288$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,234$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.74 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…cee6backed Yes | 51c | 1,794$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 36c | 1,716$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.7 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 58c | 1,550$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.19 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 46c | 1,150$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…c13ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,133$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01b…bc1dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,112$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 53c | 1,101$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,053$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.45 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 47c | 840$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked No | 50c | 763.94$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 56c | 673.52$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed Yes | 33c | 510.8$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 45c | 508.67$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 46c | 481.22$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 51c | 364.6$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.53 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 34c | 295.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…9decbacked Yes | 34c | 290.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…55a0backed Yes | 31c | 246.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 48c | 214.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 49c | 166.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 50c | 147.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 50c | 147.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 143$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 57c | 133.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…e05cbacked No | 58c | 131.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…6d9fbacked No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed No | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 38c | 100.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…74efbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…d641backed Yes | 33c | 89.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ee…c6f0backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…51ccbacked Yes | 49c | 88.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ef…3196backed Yes | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 66c | 77.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd684…1a34backed Yes | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 49c | 64.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Yes | 50c | 60.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e6…29c7backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 39c | 58.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 55c | 57.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…c428backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…82a3backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc48…ee76backed Yes | 72c | 49.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed No | 50c | 47.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.2wins | +0.25per pick | 56cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…1e4cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 50c | 35.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 51c | 31.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6f…9de1backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…e65cbacked No | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…c96dbacked No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?Yes won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.