TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1a6f…9de1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2025, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$10.85
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.75
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.52
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG beat Chelsea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.75
Will Chelsea beat Fluminense in regulation time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund in regulation time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Boca Juniors vs. Benfica: 3+ Goals Scored?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Chelsea vs. LAFC: 4+ Goals Scored?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Inter win on 2025-05-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Inter vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$46.25
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$13.46
All 9 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+267.1%+$427.41
UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Portugal (To Advance)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT+187.9%+$48.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan beat Torino? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$5.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$18.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$131
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.