F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9395c390055191cd2f1c3f3be952a27c0f3778c6d103c71e1766b9bf35100824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25a7…2f87backed No | 48c | 41,643$19,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,684.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 53c | 24,230$12,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,848.99 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Yes | 52c | 20,251$10,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,530.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 45c | 10,362$4,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,677.53 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 45c | 6,901$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.15 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 7c | 3,428$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 6c | 2,332$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 6c | 2,332$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 63c | 1,989$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.56 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 61c | 1,837$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.42 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 35c | 1,505$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 51c | 1,253$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.33 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 44c | 592.81$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Yes | 59c | 560$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 52c | 470.12$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01b…bc1dbacked Yes | 45c | 454.51$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 37c | 412.49$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.02 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 55c | 330$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed Yes | 52c | 213.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 210$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…143bbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Yes | 48c | 199.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…d409backed Yes | 44c | 196.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 64c | 161$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 57c | 156.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 50c | 145.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 38c | 144.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 50c | 130.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 48c | 127$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 123.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…29edbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 44c | 107.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…b125backed Yes | 52c | 106.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 51c | 100.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 44c | 100.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 41c | 98.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ee…c6f0backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 51c | 53.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Yes | 59c | 50.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…fbd0backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…6bfdbacked Yes | 48c | 41.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6f…9de1backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…0969backed No | 56c | 39.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Yes | 46c | 38.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…a318backed No | 55c | 31.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…cca6backed Yes | 46c | 31.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f6…75a7backed Yes | 53c | 29.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 52c | 22.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +200%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…ccf3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.