F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25dfc326e09a76f9c7ce37f745de71eb1ad7085b53f296732f6233a4b98d0624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 35c | 15,100$5,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,824.99 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 65c | 4,003$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.76 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 36c | 3,100$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.33 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 64c | 1,831$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.03 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 62c | 1,462$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.36 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 1,076$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 69c | 968.19$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 63c | 659.8$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 39c | 640.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…f4f2backed No | 64c | 639.06$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 36c | 410.73$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.98 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x107d…d49fbacked No | 4c | 389.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…74bbbacked Yes | 36c | 255.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 64c | 251.86$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed Yes | 34c | 247.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 36c | 187.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…d409backed Yes | 44c | 170.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Yes | 41c | 167.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 156.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed Yes | 36c | 152.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed No | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 59c | 149.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…bc2abacked Yes | 36c | 141.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 122.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2954…d34ebacked Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 60c | 105.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 35c | 102.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd77…ed22backed Yes | 41c | 101.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 65c | 97.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc216…b083backed Yes | 38c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…8a39backed Yes | 49c | 69.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 46c | 67.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 65.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf6…d0e7backed Yes | 40c | 50.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…fbd0backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…a74fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 60c | 42.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…ad03backed Yes | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…64b1backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 62c | 34.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 113 | 66.4%75 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d68…3786backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…8649backed Yes | 38c | 31.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9acbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…7bcdbacked Yes | 79c | 27.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…5d2fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…3ab7backed Yes | 58c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.