F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf985d595089f8686528cd128a027bb42264d905cd7e5782a43006de556d649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 8,019$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.09 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a7…2f87backed Yes | 11c | 1,321$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 5c | 803.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…db44backed Yes | 8c | 626.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 8c | 581.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd77…ed22backed Yes | 9c | 552.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 10c | 433.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…6bfdbacked Yes | 14c | 363.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed Yes | 13c | 346.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 145$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…d8ffbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 125.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…0c6abacked Yes | 13c | 114.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.