TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs S2G Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group F

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Berlin International Gamingof Berlin International Gaming, S2G Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,931 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc1ae…f001backed S2G Esports41c4,900$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00910521%22 W · 83 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed S2G Esports40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9712839.8%51 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Berlin International Gaming60c2,718$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.1539749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Berlin International Gaming56c2,000$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.0279653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed S2G Esports40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Berlin International Gaming60c1,605$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.9667931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Berlin International Gaming60c1,564$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.3128240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked S2G Esports41c1,258$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.990348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Berlin International Gaming59c1,195$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.9582454.9%452 W · 372 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Berlin International Gaming77c1,184$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27769756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked Berlin International Gaming58c1,094$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.6225268.3%172 W · 80 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed S2G Esports40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40044335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa076…2641backed Berlin International Gaming60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed S2G Esports37c819.89$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.3319437.6%73 W · 121 L+0.8wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Berlin International Gaming59c807$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.4243947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Berlin International Gaming59c766$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.1845344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Berlin International Gaming60c766$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.3710844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Berlin International Gaming60c756.05$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.813429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Berlin International Gaming60c735$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.3213444.8%60 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Berlin International Gaming60c666.63$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6130247%142 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Berlin International Gaming63c611$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8219146.1%88 W · 103 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Berlin International Gaming59c599.99$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2462,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed S2G Esports40c583$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.671,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked S2G Esports41c533.48$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.735131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed S2G Esports21c530.6$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9699338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Berlin International Gaming59c519$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.3637345%168 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed S2G Esports42c504.48$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.082,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c67…9896backed Berlin International Gaming57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21550646%233 W · 273 L+2.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed S2G Esports43c497.98$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21413418.7%25 W · 109 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Berlin International Gaming55c455.27$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.2740237.8%152 W · 250 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed S2G Esports41c434.47$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.018944.9%40 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed S2G Esports40c428.95$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.589938.4%38 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6288…5b5abacked Berlin International Gaming61c413.6$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.032176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+115%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed S2G Esports40c408.01$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.28055%44 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked S2G Esports40c380$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15277131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked S2G Esports41c366.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.271,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked S2G Esports41c354.12$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1561143.5%266 W · 345 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed S2G Esports12c350$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Berlin International Gaming59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9866437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Berlin International Gaming64c335.51$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.781,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Berlin International Gaming60c334.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7632650.3%164 W · 162 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Berlin International Gaming71c328.09$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.642,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87a7…4972backed S2G Esports43c309.39$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.221764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+260.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9d…821fbacked Berlin International Gaming60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205253.8%28 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed S2G Esports41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231,39743.7%611 W · 786 L-4.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed S2G Esports20c290$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed S2G Esports22c278.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4844843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed S2G Esports22c252.86$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.632560%15 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed S2G Esports40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10086251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed S2G Esports42c240$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.766445.6%303 W · 361 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3a…834cbacked Berlin International Gaming79c238.56$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.79785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e15…7ec8backed S2G Esports42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Berlin International Gaming79c235.51$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.462,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked S2G Esports42c213.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.651,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Berlin International Gaming56c212.5$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9430139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Berlin International Gaming60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8026354%142 W · 121 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed Berlin International Gaming59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8241347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ec…09afbacked Berlin International Gaming60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked S2G Esports41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked S2G Esports39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed S2G Esports41c173.36$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.087742.9%33 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed S2G Esports42c171$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.824736.2%17 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8805…493cbacked S2G Esports42c163$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed S2G Esports35c160$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.82,22237.4%832 W · 1,390 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5562…3b41backed Berlin International Gaming60c159$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.695749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed S2G Esports18c153$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.563,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb502…145cbacked Berlin International Gaming61c147.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5413971.2%99 W · 40 L+10.6wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed S2G Esports32c137.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41,72629.4%507 W · 1,219 L-124.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed S2G Esports56c126$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.092839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ba6…2a7ebacked S2G Esports41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked S2G Esports42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5099147.1%467 W · 524 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed S2G Esports14c119$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.183036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed S2G Esports44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked S2G Esports36c101.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.742,33640.4%943 W · 1,393 L-58.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Berlin International Gaming63c101$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.831,47648.3%713 W · 763 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed S2G Esports41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4136048.9%176 W · 184 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Berlin International Gaming63c95.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8554054.3%293 W · 247 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd989…dcbabacked Berlin International Gaming57c89$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2716863.7%107 W · 61 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Berlin International Gaming60c88.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6351247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd5…8f67backed Berlin International Gaming57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7219251%98 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked S2G Esports41c85.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515747.8%75 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eba…3b04backed Berlin International Gaming59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.753444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked S2G Esports41c84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4453649.8%267 W · 269 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed S2G Esports26c83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.191,92335.9%690 W · 1,233 L-98.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed S2G Esports39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.233642.3%142 W · 194 L-1.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8e1…0a7fbacked S2G Esports42c78.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.881526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-58.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5f49…6d23backed Berlin International Gaming59c77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.57250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked S2G Esports25c75.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.722,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22d8…682abacked Berlin International Gaming59c73.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Berlin International Gaming61c73.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7711750.4%59 W · 58 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9f…36dfbacked S2G Esports41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3058649.8%292 W · 294 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Berlin International Gaming69c67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Berlin International Gaming60c65.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2782161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Berlin International Gaming59c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6558042.4%246 W · 334 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed S2G Esports40c60.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2420544.4%91 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked S2G Esports42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8353…01a8backed S2G Esports42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251625%4 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6c28…f16abacked Berlin International Gaming74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed S2G Esports41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.553954.7%295 W · 244 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…6d8bbacked Berlin International Gaming59c49.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.