F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36fd75480e8e62ab9fc13435e540f0dfc361feec76d2f8ea3d9928d3d8d90fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes | 7c | 7,507$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.13 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…9dadbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 5c | 4,513$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 4,037$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.67 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,424$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 5c | 2,556$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 1,855$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…95adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,588$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Yes | 2c | 1,477$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 5c | 1,457$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 5c | 1,342$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,182$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…903bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,131$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,093$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…09febacked Yes | 7c | 1,026$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,016$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…5662backed Yes | 6c | 940$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 930.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3dc0backed Yes | 7c | 799.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 8c | 790.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…e515backed Yes | 4c | 755.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 5c | 700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 14c | 683.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 6c | 653.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Yes | 4c | 601.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…e0dbbacked Yes | 7c | 580.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 9c | 558.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…cebfbacked Yes | 9c | 544.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…2763backed Yes | 10c | 516.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…3979backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…39b4backed Yes | 9c | 468.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…f11ebacked Yes | 22c | 456.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 6c | 453.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 434.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…2b2bbacked Yes | 13c | 417.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7e…eab2backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…bb74backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…9f99backed Yes | 8c | 395.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 9c | 390.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…3b01backed Yes | 6c | 387.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 5c | 378.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 4c | 373.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 340.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5a…1b0dbacked Yes | 5c | 311.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…f1c6backed Yes | 9c | 311.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…b2edbacked Yes | 9c | 279$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f10…c927backed Yes | 4c | 253.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…88bbbacked Yes | 13c | 234.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…a8efbacked Yes | 9c | 232.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…af8bbacked Yes | 6c | 221$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…66b2backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…6faebacked Yes | 5c | 196.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…b673backed Yes | 5c | 186.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Yes | 8c | 180.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…677fbacked Yes | 7c | 178.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Yes | 9c | 177.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…c50ebacked Yes | 7c | 172.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 13c | 144.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…5504backed Yes | 10c | 144.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…c827backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 9c | 116.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…a60cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…d9d8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.