F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf626a00dece084ed6054225f7b54cae1de6c117814a82ae9c093bd13d807c6ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,617$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,017$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,434$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 3c | 2,091$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…bceabacked Yes | 4c | 1,869$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,641$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…e464backed Yes | 1c | 1,569$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…d5d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,568$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3dc0backed Yes | 3c | 1,510$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…a944backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,333$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 7c | 1,240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,223$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 5c | 1,134$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 842.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…e12fbacked Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Yes | 3c | 748.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Yes | 2c | 736.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…5d51backed Yes | 6c | 685.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 3c | 630.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 574.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 7c | 543.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…3b01backed Yes | 4c | 535.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Yes | 9c | 469.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…7242backed Yes | 3c | 375.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…af8bbacked Yes | 5c | 329.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 4c | 323.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 7c | 320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 7c | 304.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…c9f6backed Yes | 4c | 294.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7e…eab2backed Yes | 8c | 261$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f10…c927backed Yes | 8c | 258.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 10c | 247.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Yes | 8c | 180.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…45eebacked Yes | 12c | 123.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…625fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.