F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dbdbb54ce88b03f1d2e6a8d4580f862aa278c02bd5393a1ab62c17fcedd19d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 2c | 10,010$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,323$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,438$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,174$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 1c | 998.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 806.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ad…0c64backed Yes | 2c | 659.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Yes | 2c | 463.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…3b01backed Yes | 3c | 441.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.