TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

F1 · resolved market

Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$465,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$448,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $465,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e10…0cd4backed Yes3c9,779$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ce…09abbacked Yes3c5,526$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes1c4,884$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4414429.9%43 W · 101 L+14.2wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+69.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b10…0473backed Yes3c4,788$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd00…2beebacked Yes3c4,637$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505b…93bebacked Yes3c4,259$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c3…ef80backed Yes4c4,080$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b34…c607backed Yes3c3,741$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1247…3949backed Yes4c3,665$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9787…32a7backed Yes3c3,527$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e5…7c6ebacked Yes3c3,391$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7213…6835backed Yes4c2,775$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dcd…167dbacked Yes4c2,739$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa65…0a80backed Yes3c2,620$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0df…dd8dbacked Yes4c2,603$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…8e2fbacked Yes4c2,581$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c6d…37debacked Yes3c2,520$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8c…63cdbacked Yes3c2,436$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882b…ddb8backed Yes5c2,425$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a47…8df1backed Yes4c2,419$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…9046backed Yes5c2,379$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0624…4487backed Yes3c2,359$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d97…d3a9backed Yes4c2,352$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a37…214ebacked Yes5c2,332$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes3c2,305$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.54128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-86.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dff…7f3fbacked Yes4c2,155$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff0…d4e9backed Yes4c2,134$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…04a3backed Yes4c2,125$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac3…bf8fbacked Yes3c2,075$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51c…ebc6backed Yes4c2,059$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf2…f76cbacked Yes3c2,037$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes2c1,955$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.112419.4%24 W · 100 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc723…c564backed Yes3c1,937$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81db…3237backed Yes3c1,918$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd276…9d69backed Yes3c1,904$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes4c1,795$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.532218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid-29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…422cbacked Yes3c1,759$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf933…8db1backed Yes3c1,710$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06b…8d48backed Yes5c1,683$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e6…5f55backed Yes4c1,672$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1028…9e14backed Yes3c1,614$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6095…db53backed Yes3c1,574$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3396…dc8ebacked Yes3c1,564$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f06…8677backed Yes3c1,560$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f2…cb26backed Yes5c1,553$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aae…7a75backed Yes3c1,542$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa4…805ebacked Yes3c1,537$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095b…03e7backed Yes5c1,527$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c8…315abacked Yes3c1,514$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c1,510$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.36137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8931…fb94backed Yes4c1,463$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…0fa8backed Yes3c1,461$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9d…26cebacked Yes5c1,435$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…b810backed Yes3c1,376$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…98bdbacked Yes5c1,373$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b27…80f2backed Yes3c1,307$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…60a4backed Yes3c1,290$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2584…2891backed Yes3c1,273$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c68…fafebacked Yes3c1,264$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes2c1,256$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.288622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e6d…e581backed Yes1c1,250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4112…eff5backed Yes4c1,183$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb3e…a0febacked Yes4c1,173$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Yes2c1,118$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55cd…f8d8backed Yes3c1,104$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f65…3924backed Yes3c1,094$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cdd…e6a9backed Yes1c1,093$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e48…cbd8backed Yes3c1,093$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes1c1,089$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.978138.3%31 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb528…00c0backed Yes3c1,057$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…d88ebacked Yes4c1,028$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc71…2ad5backed Yes5c982$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cb…572fbacked Yes3c977$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bd…64d6backed Yes4c966$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab76…ccd3backed Yes3c949$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a8…33b6backed Yes3c937$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fdb…364cbacked Yes3c920.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4491…5fb1backed Yes3c912$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…d5debacked Yes4c897$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c5…d8babacked Yes4c894$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2be…13b3backed Yes4c874$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d8…7a00backed Yes5c873$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ed…7a20backed Yes5c870$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad7…0282backed Yes1c862.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2326…756ebacked Yes5c857$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c851.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5f…bc51backed Yes3c845$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3d…a3e7backed Yes5c844$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c84…4d4dbacked Yes5c840$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f7…4348backed Yes5c834$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e09…8898backed Yes4c827$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb497…c7c7backed Yes4c806$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5306…6729backed Yes4c805$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd864…ca1bbacked Yes3c794$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4750…e7d6backed Yes3c777$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf6…6b08backed Yes5c772$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7020…244dbacked Yes3c760$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07a7…3433backed Yes3c760$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed1c…494dbacked Yes3c698.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4be…ccb3backed Yes3c675$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.