F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x363426ee84ef925752fecc13e07d9fcdeb710dfe3df2bcc750eed73b3affa8ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,704$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7e…5ba1backed No | 29c | 2,800$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes | 71c | 1,594$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 72c | 1,331$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.41 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…0decbacked Yes | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 20c | 120.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 25c | 116.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e7…ed30backed No | 31c | 96.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 27c | 73.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 43c | 65.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…69f5backed No | 34c | 59.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…cbc3backed Yes | 75c | 47.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 73c | 43.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 66c | 34.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 74c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…f8febacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 79c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa5…6ebcbacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.