F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x937f7df9063f41e3d4081b59de8e289151d3ee8d280ab477dde7686585cf5925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,142 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 52c | 1,931$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.14 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 43c | 1,337$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.78 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 27c | 1,115$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 49c | 944.68$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 48c | 795.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.83 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 57c | 750$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.51 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 52c | 655.9$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Yes | 56c | 552$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…8490backed Yes | 56c | 316.16$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 59c | 282.85$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.56 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 47c | 205$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…b0e9backed Yes | 50c | 201.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…4bffbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed No | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Yes | 56c | 178.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 166.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 54c | 162.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 56c | 125.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…8cd6backed No | 46c | 108.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 15c | 101.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 53c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 50c | 62.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 42c | 60.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 52c | 56.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 45c | 52.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 56c | 52.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7a…b077backed No | 65c | 49.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed No | 66c | 46.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 53c | 46.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 38.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe89…e3c0backed Yes | 54c | 37.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…2749backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…b2babacked Yes | 45c | 30.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…af4bbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 42c | 27.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…6a3abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…f72abacked Yes | 60c | 19.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.