F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df1653d9bf0c1cf7b9f7d5c03c8198c3fb698aa035eae982b14a2f80742ceb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 43c | 6,740$2,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,920.88 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 52c | 3,571$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.11 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 45c | 3,268$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.34 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…7f1cbacked No | 52c | 2,593$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…1905backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 57c | 1,001$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.77 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…cd14backed Yes | 53c | 956.37$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 43c | 573.66$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.7 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 59c | 531.6$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.17 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3665…0212backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Yes | 54c | 407.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked Yes | 52c | 396.08$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 42c | 304.48$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed No | 44c | 285.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 53c | 281.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.29 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 57c | 256.21$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 50c | 250$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…8a30backed No | 47c | 199.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked No | 53c | 185.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 60c | 164.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 45c | 133.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 61c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Yes | 53c | 124.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 51c | 117.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes | 34c | 114.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 65c | 105.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 103.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 46c | 101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…bb86backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 34c | 98.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…06eebacked No | 50c | 96.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…95c3backed No | 74c | 86.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 76.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 26c | 71.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…47e5backed No | 61c | 55.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…2bf1backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea0…318fbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…5241backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 50c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…2cc2backed Yes | 40c | 49.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 43c | 46.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed Yes | 51c | 44.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…f4a7backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…2b77backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 50c | 41.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Yes | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 35.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…315dbacked Yes | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…5d42backed Yes | 41c | 32.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeeb…1588backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…be44backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 28.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Yes | 42c | 28.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…1dc8backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…e526backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.