Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3eb5a6d617332b6e55b433720bb54b7fcac040beb107bafc2780cd3fb8d3c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,751 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 2,750$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…7a94backed Yes | 52c | 1,391$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 73c | 833.71$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.95 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…b8cebacked Yes | 61c | 820.48$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 26c | 726.6$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.64 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…c947backed Yes | 38c | 713.13$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…6e72backed Yes | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…f8a9backed No | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 45c | 540$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…66e8backed No | 38c | 491.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 388.31$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes | 56c | 373.36$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 45c | 320.4$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…7744backed Yes | 68c | 295.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 49c | 292.27$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 52c | 263.44$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 260.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87a…5403backed Yes | 34c | 255.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…56ecbacked Yes | 75c | 230$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…ca52backed Yes | 45c | 220.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…90fcbacked No | 78c | 191.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…c804backed Yes | 46c | 185.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 38c | 181$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 155.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 151.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…1280backed No | 74c | 135.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…25fdbacked No | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 31c | 118.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 44c | 108.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 107.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 105.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…df6ebacked No | 49c | 101.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…b5f0backed Yes | 45c | 97.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…f12ebacked No | 60c | 97.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…b6afbacked No | 52c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 41c | 92.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5f…ed69backed Yes | 34c | 87.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…a470backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 73.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…c241backed Yes | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 40c | 62.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…751dbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…6b54backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ad…49ffbacked Yes | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes | 62c | 57.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…482dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc5…b066backed Yes | 48c | 51.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…eb9fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde52…c2c3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…45b9backed Yes | 33c | 49.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…6394backed Yes | 34c | 48.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 61c | 46.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…df7dbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 44.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 39c | 42.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…8538backed No | 50c | 39.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 54c | 39.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 56c | 31.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed Yes | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 50c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad35…6cd9backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 47c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 53c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa19…2486backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…6140backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?this page
- Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?No won
- Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7%?No won
- Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?No won
- Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 3.4% and 3.6%?No won
- Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.