F1 · resolved market
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94167218e53ac39e997d14917d09aab15d6f7668d6ea46ee0aa87e73449b00df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Piastriof Norris, Piastri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Piastri | 34c | 201.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Norris | 64c | 193.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Piastri | 37c | 109.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Norris | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…acdcbacked Piastri | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Norris | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc421…724cbacked Norris | 67c | 58.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Piastri | 38c | 53.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Norris | 63c | 47.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Piastri | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Norris | 65c | 34.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Norris | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Norris | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri?this page
- Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton?Leclerc won
- Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Norris?Norris won
- Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell?Leclerc won
- Who will finish higher: Norris or Verstappen?Verstappen won
- Who will finish higher: Ocon or Bearman?Ocon won
- Who will finish higher: Piastri or Russell?Piastri won
- Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli?Russell won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.