World Politics · resolved market
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cc0fe6b5a5a9ab2a7381caf7054510d8cc8035e73d2050866a2b2f0959643b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,973,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $803,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,973,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 118,370$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.06 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 115,876$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e7…3d76backed Yes | 0c | 73,879$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 66,201$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.81 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…9772backed Yes | 0c | 52,019$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9e…2bffbacked Yes | 0c | 49,253$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 32,420$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…7bd1backed Yes | 0c | 24,626$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,468$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…8f4abacked Yes | 0c | 20,150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…7e32backed Yes | 0c | 14,443$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…7e4fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,426$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 0c | 13,065$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f4…6c2ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…5380backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…8defbacked Yes | 0c | 9,810$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4be…d9c8backed Yes | 0c | 9,750$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…740ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x220d…9ac7backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635f…8141backed Yes | 1c | 8,900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…9a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…dd62backed Yes | 1c | 8,580$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fa…eccebacked Yes | 1c | 7,980$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 7,682$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 1c | 7,658$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…01a9backed Yes | 1c | 7,650$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…2815backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c0…9cb4backed Yes | 1c | 7,060$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…162fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,994$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 0c | 6,920$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…9a43backed Yes | 1c | 6,384$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…c060backed Yes | 1c | 6,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…bb40backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08df…aea8backed Yes | 1c | 5,397$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +254.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…6162backed Yes | 1c | 5,055$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…464fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…2c4ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef3…6ee3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…7f02backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 7cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…c0f6backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…f35fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,950$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…7fa4backed Yes | 0c | 3,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…5619backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes | 1c | 2,759$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 2,730$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…d2a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…fc7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…f3f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,494$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?this page
- Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?Yes won
- Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.