World Politics · resolved market
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3d9b0dd4ec88715195d7dcc4e5a700558c932acff03e10c1addaaf7f50d8c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,307,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $529,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,307,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 84,176$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.11 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 71,346$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…f9e6backed Yes | 1c | 33,963$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 32,935$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 24,900$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 0c | 16,618$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,859$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…471bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…33aebacked Yes | 0c | 11,227$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0697…090fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,082$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…7d72backed Yes | 1c | 8,859$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…401dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…0c20backed Yes | 1c | 7,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 0c | 7,120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe594…e61dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,984$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…7f02backed Yes | 1c | 5,143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 7cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…dd28backed Yes | 1c | 4,885$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…d88bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ed…c62dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,960$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…e342backed Yes | 1c | 3,907$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408b…1ffebacked Yes | 0c | 3,330$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…6c04backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…ed2abacked Yes | 1c | 2,984$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…ff4ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,520$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 1,873$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 76c | 35.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?this page
- Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?Yes won
- Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.