Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e4f7c7d602f766da79985d2904705e6b4c97c5938d1ba8620749622b1dc07f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 12c | 6,019$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.27 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 13c | 5,430$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.68 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 25c | 5,122$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,843.3 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 33c | 4,380$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,918.67 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 78c | 4,191$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2,039.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked No | 2c | 3,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 13c | 2,995$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.83 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked No | 19c | 2,728$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…96eebacked No | 12c | 1,559$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed No | 23c | 1,486$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 14c | 1,246$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed No | 19c | 885.78$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 17c | 811$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.63 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 15c | 726.44$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 17c | 674.77$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 12c | 585.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked No | 13c | 584.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…fecdbacked No | 11c | 556.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…d037backed No | 15c | 540.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked No | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 77c | 500$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 8c | 472.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 464.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 18c | 450$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 392.83$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.73 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…d601backed No | 14c | 350$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…29d4backed No | 16c | 310.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…f7bebacked No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…f782backed No | 11c | 288.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 15c | 282.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 17c | 271.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 20c | 271.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 76c | 242.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 76c | 178.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 63c | 177.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7da…5edfbacked No | 15c | 153$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 151.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 7c | 139.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 116.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 79c | 114.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked No | 13c | 113.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…b449backed No | 18c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce6…dcb3backed No | 20c | 100.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…8043backed No | 22c | 91.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 22c | 90.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…ac92backed Yes | 15c | 88.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +582.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed No | 16c | 76.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked No | 21c | 71.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 41c | 71.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 41.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 33.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe184…920abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.