Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd94b503e23bf84cd40fc37b3eb56e29ab7f03c1cecf92545c87cd86892b857f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 4,586$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.3 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,572$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 38c | 2,639$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.49 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,973$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 1,868$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 5c | 1,670$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 60c | 1,407$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.92 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 1,055$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.39 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 30c | 999.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2,039.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 65c | 928$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.89 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 701.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 64c | 610$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 456$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 74c | 345.96$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…3457backed Yes | 6c | 339.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 260.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…5eb8backed No | 70c | 255.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 178.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 132.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 58c | 67.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 68c | 43.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…ad92backed Yes | 34c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 60c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…67adbacked Yes | 43c | 24.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in December?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.