Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a650203c078058404af564c0cb579beded0566195a9335b9cce17af56720778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 61c | 12,189$7,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,747.34 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 79c | 10,696$8,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 16c | 8,131$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.82 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…5861backed No | 45c | 6,921$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 7c | 4,200$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.03 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 66c | 4,055$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.27 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a3…4e1cbacked No | 34c | 2,738$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 18c | 2,197$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 40c | 2,125$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.41 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 64c | 2,054$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.58 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 16c | 1,874$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed No | 11c | 1,418$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +693.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +231.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 76c | 1,046$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.63 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 72c | 998$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.51 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Yes | 2c | 978.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +1,484.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 79c | 891.71$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed No | 50c | 616.93$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 25c | 575.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 43c | 534$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.1 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 14c | 428$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 72c | 370.28$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.53 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 42c | 294.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +352.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 285$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.1 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 60c | 274.31$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 234 | 30.3%71 W · 163 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 15c | 266$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 263.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 262.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 9c | 255.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 249$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 59c | 240$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 16c | 231.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 9c | 209.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked Yes | 42c | 208.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 34c | 208.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed No | 11c | 203.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +969.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 71c | 168.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 163.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 314 | 18.5%58 W · 256 L | -30.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 9c | 129.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 77c | 123.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0cebbacked No | 18c | 113.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 109.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 303 | 13.9%42 W · 261 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…8a51backed No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 14c | 86.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 67c | 85.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed No | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 18c | 82.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 13c | 77.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 76.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 25c | 55.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed No | 73c | 55.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…9ccfbacked Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 63c | 41.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 37c | 35.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…c04fbacked Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…6f8ebacked Yes | 78c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in November?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in November?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.