Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036c46654733b5b6dd8ed3f1dfbca21c04d6ad9e54772eac0abb53f50f9fe176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 5c | 29,512$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.1 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 5c | 16,564$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.82 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c149backed Yes | 4c | 8,940$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.37 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 9c | 8,637$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.32 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 4c | 7,482$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.56 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 6c | 6,215$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.87 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…d556backed Yes | 4c | 5,627$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 4,983$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.57 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 3,027$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,500$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 4c | 2,249$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +969.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 5c | 2,208$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed Yes | 4c | 2,087$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,905$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 4c | 1,839$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,703$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,666$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 6c | 1,580$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,337$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,297$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1,414.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 3c | 1,294$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 9c | 1,274$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,263$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 1,236$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,064$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,033$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…5aecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 787.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 662.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 8c | 516$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +3,455%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 5c | 319.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 268.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked Yes | 14c | 111.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.