TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,874
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,874 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes37c35,121$13,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,169.658636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes38c18,769$7,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,070.774027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes36c12,966$4,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.852236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes40c7,930$3,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,166.981936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes38c6,000$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.74731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No61c4,699$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.9212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes39c4,252$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.122540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Yes37c4,015$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.371127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes37c3,201$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.314250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.114231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes39c2,673$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.331533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes39c2,153$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.793426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No61c1,954$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.723330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe2…e839backed No65c1,686$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No63c1,595$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.5122433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes41c1,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.995032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No61c1,088$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.2711359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb9…4f81backed No66c999.98$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.991637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2,039.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No64c989.05$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.133743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes34c951.16$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.891942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No61c879.18$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.7411039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No60c800$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32419931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6547…8043backed Yes43c775.57$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.742142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No63c769.22$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.534422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+102.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes37c609.86$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+1,414.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c580.17$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.5515148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Yes32c495$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ed…cbbebacked Yes33c454.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf760…bf84backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae0…237cbacked No66c300.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+507.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes34c297.06$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42b1…1078backed Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c4…a6bebacked No72c289.94$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes39c283.07$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.44254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No69c277.26$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.11464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d4…c2c6backed No59c266$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes39c165.66$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9914024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ea…67adbacked Yes40c160.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes31c137.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1313338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14a8…7e6bbacked Yes40c126.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed No62c112.9$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No60c103.92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.761040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x226c…5541backed Yes40c103.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5673…98fdbacked Yes40c100.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9517528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No65c89.95$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.112161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e92…7be8backed Yes41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No62c70.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.021464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked No61c69.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+94.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed No60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c64.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.97466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a53…52adbacked Yes41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0cebbacked No63c60.07$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…9c7bbacked No62c58.21$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e6d…2d64backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c46.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3429913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f6…8a51backed No62c45.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No67c43.37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.394344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…b0aebacked No59c40.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a13…519ebacked No60c40.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes40c39.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdef5…bb56backed No61c35.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecc…46babacked Yes41c34.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf700…166fbacked No60c32.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1757…bd49backed No66c31.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c05…6c42backed No61c28.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd630…6403backed Yes41c26.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc14c…dd9abacked Yes43c26.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0f…d97abacked Yes41c26.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb118…605cbacked No60c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes41c24.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb186…310cbacked No62c24.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f90…c022backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+693.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No68c17.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.