Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dea4f65196c1428d347a4b71c7b5e619fbb0956badb56773c720e406fdcc842
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 14c | 27,529$3,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,784.61 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 14c | 25,889$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.67 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 15c | 15,437$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 14c | 9,130$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 14c | 7,421$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.66 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 8c | 5,739$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.25 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 7c | 4,372$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.59 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 2,465$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.32 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 17c | 2,238$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.39 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 1,329$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.43 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 16c | 1,237$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.68 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,170$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…61aabacked Yes | 16c | 1,083$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +322.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 9c | 1,017$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2,039.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 551$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 16c | 510$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 363.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1,414.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 20c | 352.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6416…f1c5backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 4c | 292.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 270.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…62e7backed No | 78c | 205.77$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 14c | 188$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 184.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…67adbacked Yes | 12c | 161.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 16c | 160.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 38c | 136.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 128.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 11c | 124.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +584.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 10c | 109.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…1c51backed Yes | 18c | 109.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked Yes | 19c | 95.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…4032backed Yes | 16c | 79.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…9044backed Yes | 39c | 66.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.