Earnings · resolved market
Will Walmart say "SNAP" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd84a95b0fdfa8d3584ce2e40f563b6fb5d892a9876a748d476abdf1313998cb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked No | 37c | 7,975$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked Yes | 12c | 1,512$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 43c | 1,060$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 16c | 899.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…3796backed No | 64c | 585$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…3040backed No | 42c | 299.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 63c | 181.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 46c | 77.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 61c | 73.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 55c | 73.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…5bccbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Walmart say "SNAP" during earnings call?this page
- Will Walmart say "Automation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Automotive" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Brick and Mortar" during earnings call?No won
- Will Walmart say "Competition" during earnings call?No won
- Will Walmart say "Dividend" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Omnichannel" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "OnePay / One Pay" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "OpenAI" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call?No won
- Will Walmart say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.