Earnings · resolved market
Will Walmart say "OpenAI" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6af00c5e1d374fc8c682074695346793a56c0c6d8ae7a96f4bfdf5d3d9d742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31a9…69a2backed No | 40c | 1,506$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…3040backed No | 16c | 973.73$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 3c | 771.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 6c | 595.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…0e8ebacked Yes | 79c | 469.89$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 402.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 17c | 351$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 307.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 34c | 237.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 13c | 206$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f58…3982backed No | 17c | 181.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed Yes | 59c | 78.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbf…5a47backed Yes | 57c | 53.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 60c | 43.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 65c | 41.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes | 67c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Walmart say "OpenAI" during earnings call?this page
- Will Walmart say "Automation" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Automotive" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Brick and Mortar" during earnings call?No won
- Will Walmart say "Competition" during earnings call?No won
- Will Walmart say "Dividend" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Omnichannel" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "OnePay / One Pay" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "SNAP" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Walmart say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call?No won
- Will Walmart say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.