Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0acac49132c1e8bd6190337938cf8dd579ba2d67bca9221179a3b7f92ff77a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 2c | 9,183$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 49c | 5,596$2,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.69 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 45c | 4,612$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 65c | 4,078$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.62 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 54c | 2,504$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 55c | 2,411$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.3 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 33c | 2,095$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.15 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 60c | 2,046$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.11 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 1,801$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 56c | 1,752$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 1,460$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.23 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 38c | 1,291$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.37 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed No | 3c | 1,141$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed No | 28c | 1,076$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 46c | 1,030$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked No | 45c | 1,017$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.38 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 64c | 1,000$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 70c | 890.3$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.89 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 71c | 888.87$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 51c | 765$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.85 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…5449backed Yes | 80c | 759.81$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes | 68c | 729.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 36c | 722.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…bb2abacked Yes | 70c | 709.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…7e75backed No | 38c | 613.53$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 599.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 48c | 563.18$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.14 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 27c | 520.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…faeabacked No | 59c | 374.6$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 40c | 362.72$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 43c | 352.62$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 335.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 33c | 325$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.75 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed No | 33c | 240$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 80c | 236.47$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 222.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 55c | 221$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8603…0bbabacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…41aebacked No | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed No | 45c | 186.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 34c | 181.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…bf19backed No | 11c | 178.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 39c | 159.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 71c | 158.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 67c | 149.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 119$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 32c | 118.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 53c | 110.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…67adbacked Yes | 62c | 106.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 44c | 99.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 48c | 81.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 52c | 63.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 55c | 60.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 51c | 50.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…9f63backed Yes | 53c | 48.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked No | 42c | 43.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…4472backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3f…7fe6backed Yes | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…56e5backed No | 49c | 34.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 45c | 32.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…9ea2backed No | 49c | 28.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc297…d82fbacked Yes | 52c | 27.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 50c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…808abacked No | 46c | 23.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…6da5backed Yes | 59c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in October?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in October?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.