Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf89b012b3bd96c8d41074fa07bd93ee22925e560032f0da5f27434cfe32776de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 10c | 4,900$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.07 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 15c | 4,018$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.17 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 14c | 3,722$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.05 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 17c | 2,931$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 19c | 2,300$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.74 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 13c | 1,900$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.93 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,476$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 1,050$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 15c | 1,041$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2,039.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 19c | 1,040$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 1,007$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…e60dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…6d8ebacked Yes | 17c | 694.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…bf19backed Yes | 15c | 360$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 313.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7301…4c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc258…1935backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…7257backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 15c | 97.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a01…4e32backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 12c | 89.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…d07ebacked Yes | 15c | 86.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 81.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in October?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in October?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.