Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d1e037b01d0d049c4686dc5274221dc4f1aea8f30e8d71c5020cb4b43b1f4bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 2c | 4,324$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 29c | 2,220$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.6 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 31c | 1,935$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.28 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 30c | 1,362$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.68 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,300$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 1,001$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.82 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 62c | 921.5$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed Yes | 78c | 903.07$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 68c | 774.95$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…98fdbacked No | 38c | 658.77$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 31c | 509.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.9 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 51c | 398.67$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 72c | 398.27$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 341.25$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 30c | 317.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 71c | 259$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 251.86$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 35c | 247.06$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4651backed Yes | 47c | 229.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 67c | 207.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd880…9de0backed Yes | 33c | 174.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea82…0f11backed Yes | 34c | 146.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 74c | 119.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 64c | 106.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 47c | 98.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 37c | 78.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 52c | 76.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de9…84b5backed No | 68c | 72.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 44.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…e719backed Yes | 70c | 42.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 47c | 41.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f5…5e0ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…d926backed Yes | 34c | 36.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…4fe4backed No | 74c | 35.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e21…c002backed Yes | 28c | 35.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…7c1bbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 50c | 29.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…2310backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…5d87backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…ad30backed No | 69c | 26.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…3286backed Yes | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…3da6backed No | 69c | 22.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…ddbbbacked No | 74c | 22.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…f017backed Yes | 48c | 22.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…a571backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.