Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b7599d1bd4ffef11746907dbfe956a277c101489da806be25812efe22d1c359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 63c | 3,743$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.2 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 58c | 2,373$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.35 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 62c | 2,240$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.96 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 31c | 1,905$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.03 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 6c | 1,810$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 1,640$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.39 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 43c | 1,191$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 43c | 1,065$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 1,040$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.05 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 35c | 1,034$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.96 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 384.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.23 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 38c | 320$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 54c | 310.01$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 263.72$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 21c | 263.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…e839backed Yes | 53c | 226.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…fab1backed No | 55c | 181.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 40c | 160$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 138.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 52c | 137.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 68c | 136.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4651backed Yes | 66c | 121.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 53c | 119$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 67c | 102.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…aa9cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 50c | 99.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 82.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 38c | 78.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…3286backed Yes | 28c | 74.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…67adbacked Yes | 53c | 72.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 58c | 64.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd880…9de0backed No | 56c | 50.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…98debacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccd…bfe6backed No | 37c | 45.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…d97cbacked Yes | 62c | 43.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cce…9dcebacked No | 36c | 42.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…c73abacked No | 39c | 42.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…605fbacked Yes | 63c | 42.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1f…daf9backed Yes | 63c | 41.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b7…8d43backed No | 39c | 40.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…1fdabacked Yes | 65c | 39.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked No | 39c | 38.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…0bc0backed Yes | 65c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…beebbacked Yes | 65c | 37.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…9ee7backed Yes | 63c | 35.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…6f32backed Yes | 65c | 34.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce9…6885backed No | 37c | 32.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…0f21backed Yes | 63c | 31.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…c359backed No | 39c | 30.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…2d18backed Yes | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…5deabacked No | 39c | 29.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…12d3backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…56acbacked No | 37c | 28.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 28.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…e9bfbacked No | 41c | 26.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fc…c994backed Yes | 66c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…e117backed Yes | 63c | 22.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…fc1dbacked Yes | 63c | 21.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ded…427abacked Yes | 65c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3f…7fe6backed Yes | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…00e0backed Yes | 66c | 20.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.